A new poll from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) shows the gubernatorial race beginning to take shape. Former Senator Kelly Ayotte has emerged as the clear frontrunner on the Republican side, holding a commanding 59% support compared to former State Senate President Chuck Morse's 25%. With less than a month left in the campaign, Ayotte appears poised to secure the nomination. On the Democratic side, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig leads Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington by 9 points (37%-28%), though the race remains competitive, and Craig still has work to do to secure the nomination.
In the Democratic primary for New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District, former Executive Councilor and gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern, endorsed by Congresswoman Annie Kuster, is trailing in the race. Political newcomer Maggie Goodlander is gaining momentum, leading Van Ostern by 10 points (41%-31%).
The Republican congressional primaries remain largely unsettled. In the 1st Congressional District, Manchester Alderman Joe Kelly Levasseur holds a slight edge over the competition, but 59% of voters are still undecided. In the 2nd Congressional District, repeat candidate Lily Tang Williams and Vikram Mansharamani are tied at 16%, with 57% of voters yet to decide.
Neil Levesque, Executive Director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, summarized the findings: “With the state and federal primaries less than a month away, the gubernatorial race is becoming clearer, with Kelly Ayotte taking a commanding lead over Chuck Morse. Ayotte is likely to face either Joyce Craig or Cinde Warmington in the general election. The Congressional primaries, however, are far less defined, especially on the Republican side, where both the First and Second District nominations are still wide open.”
These results are from a Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll based on online surveys of 1327 New Hampshire registered voters likely to vote in the September primary. Surveys were collected between August 13th and 14th, 2024, from cell phone users randomly drawn from a sample of registered voters reflecting the demographic and partisan characteristics of the voting population. Names were presented in random order for the ballot tests. The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 2.7% with a confidence interval of 95%. The data are weighted for age, gender, geography, and education based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party identification.
Founded in 2001, the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College provides a nonpartisan forum for discussion and debate. It seeks to develop programming, and to foster scholarship and dialogue, encompassing a diverse range of political topics, opinions and issues. The Institute serves as a resource for students, scholars, politicians, and the general public.