A recent poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris has expanded her July lead and now holds a 7-point advantage over former President Donald Trump (51%-44%). This reflects not only her own personal popularity advantage but also to the favorable perception of her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
Harris's favorability among voters is slightly positive, standing at 51%-48%, an improvement from 49%-49% in July. In contrast, Donald Trump remains relatively unpopular, with a favorability rating of 43%-57%, down slightly from 43%-56% in July. Tim Walz is far more popular than Trump’s running mate Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, with a 50%-41% favorability rating, making him the best regarded among the four candidates. Vance, who has had a challenging start, is less popular than Trump, with a favorability of 41%-53%.
Neil Levesque, Executive Director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, commented: "The key to Harris's lead is partisan intensity. While President Joe Biden had the backing of just 82% of Democratic voters in June, Harris has united her party, securing 94% of the Democratic vote. By contrast, Trump is receiving 90% of the Republican vote. Trump and running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance will need to diminish their opponents' relative popularity if they are to make New Hampshire competitive in November."
These results are from a Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll based on online surveys of 1656 New Hampshire registered voters. Surveys were collected between August 13th and 14th, 2024, from cell phone users randomly drawn from a sample of registered voters reflecting the demographic and partisan characteristics of the voting population. Names were presented in random order for the ballot tests. The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 2.4% with a confidence interval of 95%. The data are weighted for age, gender, geography, and education based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party identification.
Founded in 2001, the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College provides a nonpartisan forum for discussion and debate. It seeks to develop programming, and to foster scholarship and dialogue, encompassing a diverse range of political topics, opinions and issues. The Institute serves as a resource for students, scholars, politicians, and the general public.