A recent poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) finds Vice President Kamala Harris, now the expected Democratic nominee, holding a 6-point (50% - 44%) lead over former President Donald Trump among registered voters in New Hampshire. Harris' favorability rating stands evenly at 49% for both positive and negative opinions, a significant improvement from President Joe Biden’s 39%-59% net negative rating last month. Harris enjoys strong support from more liberal voters, with 92% of somewhat liberal and 95% of very liberal voters backing her, surpassing Biden’s 83% and 67% in these groups.
Neil Levesque, Executive Director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, noted, “With President Biden’s endorsement and the Democratic campaign’s shift to Harris, she has emerged with a consolidated party support, which enhances her standing against Trump among New Hampshire voters.”
Former President Trump’s support remains unchanged since June, with 43% of respondents viewing him favorably and 56% unfavorably, closely mirroring his June rating of 42%-57%. Harris’ improved performance over Biden is attributed to her ability to attract 4 points from minor candidates and 4 points from undecided voters, compared to Biden’s position where Trump led 44%-42% last month.
Levesque added, "Harris has achieved a level of partisan enthusiasm that Biden did not, especially among the liberal base. 94% of Democratic voters now support Harris, a noticeable increase from Biden’s 82% in June. As Harris takes the lead in the campaign, shifts in voter perceptions are expected to continue."
These results are from a Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll based on online surveys of 2083 New Hampshire registered voters. Surveys were collected between July 24th and 25th, 2024, from cell phone users randomly drawn from a sample of registered voters reflecting the demographic and partisan characteristics of the voting population. Names were presented in random order for the favorability and ballot questions. The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 2.1% with a confidence interval of 95%. The data are weighted for age, gender, geography, and education based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns but are not weighted by party registration or party identification.
Founded in 2001, the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College provides a nonpartisan forum for discussion and debate. It seeks to develop programming, and to foster scholarship and dialogue, encompassing a diverse range of political topics, opinions and issues. The Institute serves as a resource for students, scholars, politicians, and the general public.