A new poll conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) reveals significant unpopularity among New Hampshire registered voters for both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, though Trump has a slight edge in favorability. Biden is seen favorably by 39% of respondents and unfavorably by 59%, while Trump holds a 42% favorable and 57% unfavorable rating. Notably, Biden leads among those who dislike both candidates; 30% of respondents with unfavorable views of both currently support Biden, compared to 13% for Trump. If the election were held today, Trump would edge out Biden in New Hampshire with support at 44% versus 42%.
Trump holds a narrow lead in the 1st Congressional District, 44% to 42%, aligning with the Republican Party's registration edge there. Notably, he also leads in the more rural 2nd District, 43% to 41%, despite a 4-point registration disadvantage. This suggests a potentially competitive race for the open House seat in the 2nd District.
New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque summarized the results, saying, "Biden leads among voters who dislike both candidates. However, more Democratic voters are drifting toward independent candidates than their Republican counterparts. While 89% of Republicans are solidly backing Trump, Biden secures the support of only 82% of Democrats."
Levesque added, "For Biden to succeed, he must solidify his support among very liberal voters. Currently, only 67% of this group supports him, with 15% still undecided. Trump, on the other hand, is faring better among moderates (44% to 38%), undeclared voters (40% to 38%), and swing voters (39% to 21%).”
These results are from a Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll based on online surveys of 1746 New Hampshire registered voters. Surveys were collected between June 28th and 29th, 2024, from cell phone users randomly drawn from a sample of registered voters reflecting the demographic and partisan characteristics of the voting population. Names were presented in random order for the favorability and ballot questions. The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 2.3% with a confidence interval of 95%. The data are weighted for age, gender, geography, and education based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party identification.
Founded in 2001, the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College provides a nonpartisan forum for discussion and debate. It seeks to develop programming, and to foster scholarship and dialogue, encompassing a diverse range of political topics, opinions and issues. The Institute serves as a resource for students, scholars, politicians, and the general public.