A recent survey conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) shows Republican Kelly Ayotte standing has improved slightly among New Hampshire likely voters and is inching closer toward a majority in the race for Governor. Former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig has slipped to a net -4 favorability (40%-44%) from a net +1, while Kelly Ayotte has improved to a net -2 favorability (47%-49%), up from a net -5 in September. Both Ayotte and Craig have picked up a point of ballot strength. Ayotte now leads 47%-44%.
Vice President Kamala Harris is at a net +2 favorability (51%-49%), down from +3 in September. Former President Donald Trump is at a net -13 (43%-56%), up from a net -16. Harris continues to lead in New Hampshire. She is ahead of Trump by 7 points (51%-44%), down slightly from her 8-point lead in September. On the issues, voters believe that Harris would do a better job of improving the nation’s economy. She leads Trump by a single point on this question, 48%-47%. Trump leads Harris on the question of border security. 50% believe that Trump would do a better job of increasing border security, versus 42% that believe that Harris would.
Democratic Congressional candidates still enjoy solid leads. Incumbent Chris Pappas leads former Executive Councilor Russell Prescott in the 1st Congressional District by 9 points (50%-41%), while former Deputy Assistant Attorney General Maggie Goodlander continues to lead entrepreneur Lily Tang Williams, 50%-38%.
Neil Levesque, executive director of the NH Institute of Politics, commented on the results, stating, “The political environment in New Hampshire has remained relatively stable since September with very little change in the state’s top races. Kelly Ayotte has improved her image somewhat while driving up Joyce Craig’s negatives, helping her pick up a point of ballot strength from previously undecided voters.”
These results are from a Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll based on online surveys of 2104 New Hampshire likely voters. Surveys were collected between October 1st and 2nd, 2024, from cell phone users randomly drawn from a sample of registered voters reflecting the demographic and partisan characteristics of the voting population. Names were presented in random order for the favorability and ballot tests. The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 2.1% with a confidence interval of 95%; the margin of sampling error for questions specific to the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts is +/- 3.0% and +/- 3.1% respectively. The data are weighted for age, gender, geography, and education based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party identification.
Founded in 2001, the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College provides a nonpartisan forum for discussion and debate. It seeks to develop programming, and to foster scholarship and dialogue, encompassing a diverse range of political topics, opinions and issues. The Institute serves as a resource for students, scholars, politicians, and the general public.